El Nino is expected to intensify further before reaching its peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest such events since records began in 1950, the World Meteorological Organization said in its latest climate update.
The United Nations weather and climate agency said the phenomenon is likely to bring above-average temperatures to large parts of the world and disrupt rainfall patterns. The resulting conditions could increase the risk of droughts and floods across different regions, adding pressure to communities, ecosystems and economies already affected by human-driven climate change.
The WMO said El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. Its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update is based on a consensus forecast from 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
“El Nino will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the agency said. It added that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October, November and December 2026.
El Nino develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The shift affects winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific, making it a global climate influence rather than a local ocean event. The cycle generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
The WMO said there is a near-100 per cent likelihood that the current El Nino will continue through February 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it could be among the strongest events observed since at least 1950.
The temperature signal has already strengthened sharply. The index measuring sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees above normal in August. For the October-December period, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees above normal. If realised, that would exceed the previous recorded peak of 2.6 degrees during the 2015-16 event.
Saulo said El Nino does not create new heat in the climate system but releases heat stored in the ocean. The ocean involved is already the warmest ever measured, she said, leaving more heat available to enter the atmosphere.
The WMO linked the previous El Nino to the extreme global temperatures recorded in recent years. It contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record, while 2024 reached an estimated 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average and became the hottest year recorded.
Although El Nino generally peaks between November and February, the resulting rise in temperatures often occurs later. The agency said some regions are already experiencing severe effects. In Central America, drought linked to the event has affected crops and caused animals to die.
The WMO’s forecast places the coming months under close observation as governments and communities track changing rainfall, temperature and water conditions. The agency’s next monitoring milestones will include the expected December peak and the forecast continuation of El Nino through February 2027.
