Andhra Pradesh is likely to see widespread rain and thundershowers between October 14 and 19 as a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal moves towards the southern peninsula, according to private weather website Skymet. The weather system could bring fairly widespread rain to the state’s coastal districts on October 14 and 15, with rainfall expected to spread to interior regions later in the week.
Skymet said a low-level cyclonic circulation has been marked over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas. The circulation is expected to become more pronounced and extend through the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, creating conditions for the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.
The system is forecast to move across the south-central Bay of Bengal and reach the southwest Bay of Bengal by mid-week. It is expected to remain near coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka and could strengthen as it moves, Skymet said. The forecast places Andhra Pradesh within a wider rain belt covering Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.
For Andhra Pradesh, the main spell is expected along the coast on October 14 and 15. As the system moves inland on October 16, rainfall is likely to become more widespread and intense across Rayalaseema and other interior parts of the southern peninsula. Skymet said the broader period of weather activity could extend from October 15 to 20.
The forecast has particular significance for coastal settlements, towns and cities where heavy showers can affect roads, low-lying areas, drainage networks and daily travel. The supplied forecast does not identify specific districts, rainfall totals or warnings for urban flooding, and those details may change as the system develops. Residents and local authorities will therefore need to follow subsequent official weather updates for location-specific information.
Skymet said the weather system could contribute to the onset of the northeast monsoon over the southern peninsula. That transition will depend on the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, with the two systems potentially withdrawing and advancing almost simultaneously over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
Rain could continue beyond October 19, although its intensity is expected to ease. Skymet also said the system’s low-latitude track near the equatorial region may prevent it from developing into a storm. The forecast currently points to a rain-bearing low-pressure system rather than a severe cyclonic event.
The next important period for monitoring is October 14 to 16, when rain is expected to begin along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts before spreading inland. Further updates will determine the intensity, distribution and local impact of the rainfall across Andhra Pradesh.
