The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from the remaining parts of India within the next two to three days, even as Kerala prepares for more rain and a possible transition to the northeast monsoon, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The forecast comes as a cyclonic circulation persists over the Gulf of Mannar and the adjoining southern Tamil Nadu coast at an altitude of 0.9 km above sea level. Another circulation is continuing over the southern Andaman Sea and adjoining areas.
The IMD said the circulation over the Andaman Sea could lead to the formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal by Tuesday. The developing weather system is expected to influence rainfall over Kerala, with light to moderate rain possible until Friday.
The department has issued a yellow alert for heavy rain in Idukki, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram on Thursday. These districts include hill areas, densely settled towns and major road corridors where intense rain can affect traffic movement, drainage and local travel.
Rain accompanied by thunder and lightning is possible at isolated places on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, isolated areas may also experience strong winds reaching 40–50 kmph, along with rain, thunder and lightning.
The expected withdrawal of the southwest monsoon coincides with the onset of the northeast monsoon in southern India. The transition does not mean an immediate end to rainfall in Kerala, as the circulation over the Bay of Bengal and the systems near the southern Tamil Nadu coast could continue to generate rain over the state.
For cities and towns in the alerted districts, the immediate concern is the management of short-duration heavy rain, lightning and strong winds. Such conditions can disrupt road travel, affect exposed structures and create hazards for pedestrians and two-wheeler users, particularly in areas with poor drainage or waterlogging history. The supplied IMD forecast does not provide district-level rainfall totals or details of any local administrative closures.
The weather systems also place importance on timely public advisories and local monitoring. Residents in the five districts have been advised through the yellow-alert framework to remain attentive to further official updates, especially during periods of thunderstorm activity and stronger winds.
The IMD’s next forecast updates will indicate whether the projected low-pressure area forms over the southeast Bay of Bengal and how its development affects rainfall and wind conditions across Kerala through Friday.
