The Chennai rain forecast is turning less intense even as the India Meteorological Department has issued an orange alert for heavy to very heavy rain in three southern Tamil Nadu districts and a yellow alert for 19 districts on Wednesday. Chennai is expected to receive moderate rain as a developing low-pressure area shifts weather activity towards the southern part of the state.
The low-pressure area is likely to form over the Gulf of Mannar and may move towards Kerala, drawing moisture away from north Tamil Nadu, V R Durai, director of the Area Cyclone Warning Centre at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Chennai, said. The shift could leave northern districts, including Chennai, with largely dry conditions after the latest spell.
Durai said another low-pressure area may form near the Andaman Islands around October 23 and move northwest towards north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha. This system could also pull moisture away from the region, potentially resulting in near-dry weather over north Tamil Nadu until the end of October.
Chennai and its suburbs received another round of rain on Tuesday after an intense weekend spell. The India Meteorological Department has forecast moderate rain for the city, with maximum temperatures likely to remain between 30°C and 31°C and minimum temperatures between 25°C and 26°C. Persistent cloud cover may keep daytime temperatures around 31°C to 32°C, although temperatures could rise during the final days of the month.
Rainfall recorded on Tuesday was uneven across the city and its surrounding areas. Nungambakkam received 6.2mm and Meenambakkam recorded 6.6mm. Automatic rain gauges measured 24mm at Good Will School in Villivakkam and 7.5mm at Puzhal.
The recent spells have taken Chennai’s monthly rainfall to 167.2mm, about 37% above normal. Kancheepuram has recorded 115.1mm, which is 12% above normal, while Tiruvallur received 114.1mm, or 11% above normal. Chengalpet, however, recorded 70.9mm, around 37% below normal, highlighting the sharp variation in rainfall across the northern districts and the wider Chennai region.
The immediate forecast indicates that the heaviest rain risk is moving away from Chennai towards southern Tamil Nadu. The IMD’s orange alert covers the three southern districts expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall, while the yellow alert signals the possibility of heavy rain in 19 other districts. For Chennai, the next few days are expected to bring moderate rain followed by drier conditions if the forecast systems continue along their projected paths.
The Regional Meteorological Centre said the warmer Bay of Bengal could continue generating weather systems in the coming weeks, which may bring additional rain to Chennai. The next key weather development is the possible formation of the low-pressure area near the Andaman Islands around October 23.
