A potential Bay of Bengal cyclone could develop towards the end of October, but its formation, strength, track and landfall location remain uncertain, according to information attributed to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and assessments by named weather experts quoted by The Samaja.
The developing weather pattern is being monitored after a circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Myanmar moved into the north Andaman Sea. The system is expected to travel west-north-westwards and could develop into a low-pressure area over the south-eastern and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal by 23 October, according to the report.
Some private weather models have placed the probability of cyclonic development at more than 60 per cent and indicated a possible movement towards the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast. However, the report makes clear that these early model projections do not establish whether a cyclone will form, how intense it may become or where it could make landfall. More reliable estimates are expected after a low-pressure area develops.
The IMD has also reported another low-pressure area over the south-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Tamil Nadu. That system is expected to move across land between Tamil Nadu and Kerala before entering the Arabian Sea. Its subsequent development there remains uncertain, according to the report.
The second half of the week could bring thunderstorms and rain to parts of coastal and southern Odisha. The report cites weather expert Surendranath Pasupalak as saying that a low-pressure area may form over the south-eastern and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October, strengthen into a depression by 25 October and potentially intensify further between 26 and 28 October. The possible cyclone track and landfall area, however, cannot yet be confirmed.
Other experts quoted in the report have offered different early scenarios. Biswajit Sahu said the system could become a depression around 24 October and a cyclonic storm around 26 October if conditions remain favourable. Initial model indications have placed a possible landfall somewhere between Visakhapatnam and Kakinada in northern Andhra Pradesh or near Ichchapuram in southern Odisha, but these are preliminary projections rather than an official landfall forecast.
The potential impact on Odisha would depend heavily on the eventual track. A landfall near Kakinada could limit the system’s direct effect on the state, while a landfall near Visakhapatnam could bring rain and strong winds to southern Odisha. A landfall near Ichchapuram could affect both southern and coastal districts with rain and winds. The report says heavier rain, strong winds and waterlogging could occur in affected areas if the system moves towards the west-central or north-western Bay of Bengal.
Further clarity is expected after the low-pressure area forms, with the report indicating that the system’s direction, intensity and possible landfall could become clearer around 24 or 25 October. Until then, the projected cyclone remains a developing possibility rather than a confirmed event.
