The Gujarat rain forecast points to scattered showers in parts of South Gujarat, Saurashtra and nearby Union Territories on October 19, even as Ahmedabad continues to experience unusually high October temperatures and the state records below-normal seasonal rainfall.
According to the weather department forecast reported by Divya Bhaskar, light or scattered rain is possible in Navsari, Valsad, Bhavnagar and Amreli, along with Daman, Dadra and Nagar Haveli. The forecast comes after the monsoon has formally withdrawn from Gujarat and residents have continued to experience intense heat during October.
The weather department has said that a trough becoming active could bring rain to these areas. The report does not indicate a forecast of widespread rainfall across the state. Over the next seven days, temperatures across Gujarat are not expected to change significantly.
Ahmedabad recorded a maximum temperature of 38.5 degrees Celsius, the highest October level in the city in the last nine years, according to the report. The city had recorded 39.4 degrees Celsius in October 2017 and 38.4 degrees Celsius in October 2024. This year, temperatures have generally remained 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal.
Ahmedabad’s maximum temperature is expected to remain around 39 degrees Celsius, the report said. The combination of persistent heat and the possibility of isolated rain is relevant to city operations, including outdoor activity, road travel and local drainage response in districts where showers are forecast.
The rainfall outlook also comes against a weaker seasonal water picture in parts of Gujarat. The state has received 89.19% of its average seasonal rainfall so far this year, according to the figures cited in the report. While the Narmada reservoir has reached 99.83% storage, the other 206 dams together have recorded around 70% storage.
Only 21 dams in the state are reported to be full, while 79 have less than 25% water storage. The uneven distribution of reservoir levels means that a high storage figure in the Narmada system does not represent water availability uniformly across Gujarat. For towns and cities dependent on local reservoirs and regional water systems, this distinction remains important as temperatures stay elevated after the monsoon withdrawal.
The immediate forecast is for scattered rainfall on October 19 in the identified districts and adjoining Union Territories. The weather department’s seven-day outlook indicates no major change in temperatures across the state.
