Kolkata’s Puja rain forecast points to scattered, short-duration showers between October 15 and 17, while the India Meteorological Department has said it does not expect rainfall intense enough to trigger the widespread waterlogging seen in the city during last year’s festivities.
The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) Kolkata has forecast sporadic and localised rain over Kolkata and parts of Bengal during Durga Puja because easterly winds are expected to bring additional moisture into the coastal belt. The sky is likely to remain partly cloudy on some days during the festival.
The weather pattern is linked to an upper-air cyclonic circulation currently located over the Gulf of Thailand and its neighbourhood. According to the IMD bulletin, the system is expected to prevail over the Andaman Sea from October 11 and could develop into a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal around October 13.
RMC officials said the system is likely to move towards the North Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast before emerging as a low-pressure area. HR Biswas, head of the RMC Kolkata, said the system was unlikely to affect Bengal directly, but the easterly winds associated with it could inject moisture into the region and lead to scattered rain.
The forecast covers October 15 to 17, when rain spells are expected to be brief. The Met office said the amount and intensity of rainfall were unlikely to be sufficient to disrupt Puja celebrations, although some pockets could experience more intense showers. Officials said the pattern could be similar to the scattered rain Kolkata has experienced over the past few days.
The forecast is significant for the city’s streets, public transport and festival infrastructure because last year a low-pressure system that later intensified into a depression brought 251 mm of rain within 24 hours during Durga Puja. The rainfall caused extensive waterlogging across Kolkata and disrupted movement in several parts of the city.
This year, however, the Met office has sought to allay fears of a repeat of that event. Biswas said the department did not expect heavy rain to wash out the festivities, though it would continue monitoring the developing weather system. Rain chances are expected to decline after October 17, with light rain probability forecast at around 20% to 30% on October 18 and 19. Dry conditions are expected from October 20.
The monsoon is also likely to withdraw from Bengal within the next three days, according to the report. The Met office is scheduled to issue another special bulletin on October 14, ahead of the main festival period.
