Fine rice prices in Hyderabad have climbed to Rs.85-Rs.90 a kg ahead of the Dasara Navaratri festive season, with traders warning that retail rates could reach Rs.100 a kg in the next few days as supplies tighten and demand rises.
The increase has been reflected in household purchases as well as wholesale movements. Over the past 30 to 45 days, the price of a 25-kg bag of fine rice has risen by Rs.300 to Rs.500, depending on the variety. A 25-kg bag of raw rice that earlier cost about Rs.1,500 is now being sold for around Rs.1,900, while steam rice prices have increased from about Rs.1,600 to Rs.2,100.
Retailers said the usual supply pattern has also changed. Until about two months ago, supervisors working with rice millers contacted traders to take orders for stocks. Traders are now reporting delayed supplies from millers, indicating that demand has begun to outpace the availability of some fine rice varieties in the market.
A kirana store owner from Mothinagar said prices could rise further. “This is just the beginning. One should not be surprised if the price of fine rice reaches Rs.100 a kg. We have no idea,” the trader said.
The pressure is not limited to demand within Telangana. Traders from Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have started procuring paddy from farmers in different districts, adding competition for varieties that are also consumed widely within the State. Fine rice cultivated in areas including the erstwhile Nizamabad, Nalgonda and Khammam districts is particularly sought after by buyers from other rice-consuming States.
The supply position is also linked to a fall in the area under paddy cultivation. During the Vanakalam season last year, paddy was cultivated on about 92 lakh acres in Telangana. This year, the cultivated area has declined to 78.23 lakh acres. Traders expect the reduced acreage, combined with festive demand and purchases from outside the State, to keep prices under pressure during the Dasara and Deepavali period.
The State government is holding stocks of fine rice varieties for distribution through the Public Distribution System. The availability of these stocks and their role in maintaining supplies to eligible households will remain important as open-market prices rise.
The Rice Millers Association has acknowledged the steep increase but expects prices to stabilise once Vanakalam stocks reach the markets. A member of the association said the outlook for the next Yasangi season remains uncertain because of the possible impact of El Nino, with future prices depending on stock arrivals and the scale of paddy cultivation and production in the coming season.
